706
FXUS65 KVEF 242207
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
306 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty outflow winds
  and flash flooding will continue into the evening, with the
  highest risk for thunderstorms and impacts in Inyo County through
  the Southern Great Basin.

* Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Monday,
  with similar conditions to today but potentially higher
  thunderstorm areal-coverage.

* Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  middle of the week, with Tuesday potentially being the peak in
  thunderstorm coverage and impacts. It will then dry out as we
  head into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Saturday

With a moist atmosphere and ample sunshine to allow for
destabilization- scattered thunderstorms developed across the region
late this morning. Development is expected to continue through the
afternoon with convection favoring the terrain at first. Later this
afternoon, outflow boundaries may allow for additional thunderstorm
development away from terrain. The highest coverage of thunderstorms
should be in the Sierra into northern Inyo and Esmeralda as upslope
flow and a weak piece of energy shifts through the area. With at
least 1.00in PWATs across the region- heavy rain and flash flooding
is possible, especially with nay storms that anchor and train over
terrain. DCAPE will remain over 1500 J/Kg in most location, and the
12Z Las Vegas sounding shows dry low levels as well as some dry air
in the mid levels, so sudden gusty winds over 40 MPH will also be
possible with any storms today. HREF is highlighting probabilities
for sudden gusty winds in the lower Colorado River Valley through
the evening, boaters should be prepared for changing weather
conditions and gusty winds.

After a lull in convection tonight, addition showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop on Monday.  The heavy rain and
flash flood threat may be lower on Monday compared to today as a bit
of dry air moves into the area, whoever with a weak shortwave and
cooler temperatures aloft moving in as well there will still be some
threat. Thus- conditions on Monday are expected to be fairly similar
to today as HiRes models though coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
may be more widespread than today.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the middle
of the week as our anomalous monsoonal moisture sticks around. A
weak shortwave trough will approach the coast of California on
Tuesday, providing additional lift to help fuel showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensemble members continue to
highlight Tuesday as the day with the best chances for widespread
convection with showers and thunderstorm activity lingering into
Wednesday and potentially Thursday for portions of the area. Hazards
with these mid-week storms will be similar to today and tomorrow`s
convective hazards. Eventually the dry southwesterly flow aloft
resulting from this shortwave will scour moisture from the area with
things drying out as we head into the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Scattered showers and thunderstorms around the terminals
will continue through the evening, favoring the mountains to the
south and west. Low chance for direct thunderstorms over the
terminals, however nearby convection could push one or more outflow
boundaries toward the terminal, resulting in sudden erratic wind
shifts. Storms will weaken and dissipate after sunset with low
impact weather and light, diurnal winds expected overnight. Another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected Monday
afternoon. Compared to today, expecting higher thunderstorm coverage
as well and a higher chance for thunderstorms over the terminals on
Monday. Other than sudden gusty winds- any storms today and Monday
could result in heavy rain, lightning, and CIGs to 10kft. Outside of
thunderstorm influences, winds monday afternoon should favor the
east or southeast around 8kts. Temperatures are forecast to be above
100F through 04Z this evening and then are expected to remain under
100F on Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue across the area through the evening,
with the greatest threat and highest thunderstorm coverage expected
in the Sierra and northern Inyo County into Southern Nevada.
Convection will wane tonight. On Monday, showers are possible in the
Colorado River Valley as early as 15Z, then more showers and
thunderstorms are expected across region on Monday afternoon.
Expecting more widespread coverage in Inyo and Southern Nevada on
Monday compared to today. Storms this  evening and Monday could
produce sudden gusty erratic winds, CIGs to 8kft-10kft, lightning,
and heavy rain. Outside of thunderstorms, winds should follow
typical patterns with speeds to around 10KT with prevailing VFR
conditions through tonight, with south to southeast winds at 8-10KT
develop across the area on Monday. Looking ahead- The threat of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region
each day through at least Wednesday, with the most coverage expected
on Tuesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Nickerson


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NWS Flagstaff Office