116
FXUS66 KLOX 242125
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
225 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...24/109 PM.

High pressure over the Four Corners Region will persist through
at least today, keeping a very warm air mass over the region.
Monsoonal moisture moving over the area will cause continued humid
conditions, along with possible showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains and desert in the afternoon to evening hours through
Tuesday. A cooling trend is expected the rest of the week as a
weak upper-level trough approaches the West Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...24/137 PM.

Lingering monsoon moisture and a moderately unstable airmass has
triggered some storms across the mountains this afternoon.
The storms aren`t particularly strong but the steering flow is
very light, under 10mph, so the biggest concern through the rest
of the afternoon will be the potential for flooding, especially
near the foothills of the Antelope Valley, including portions of
Pearblossom Highway. Could also see similar activity across the
northern Ventura mountains bordering Kern County and perhaps
extreme northeastern Santa Barbara County. Moisture and stability
parameters continue to decrease the next couple of days but can`t
rule out an isolated storm or two, especially eastern LA County
mountains.

While temperatures cooled near the coast, it was another hot day
inland with Woodland Hills and the deserts at least 103 and near
90 in the downtown LA area. A slow cooling trend is expected for
the next several days as high pressure starts to retreat to the
east and gradients begin to trend onshore. Low clouds and fog have
returned to the Central Coast and expecting a similar return to
coastal areas south of Pt Conception over the next few days. By
Tuesday and Wednesday most areas will be at or slightly below
normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...24/209 PM.

After mid week, the weather pattern is expected to remain quite
docile as a majority of the ensemble solutions maintain at least a
weak upper level trough along the West coast through the Labor Day
weekend which will keep the desert southwest high pressure system
to the east. Temperatures are expected to remain fairly steady,
mostly within 3 degrees of normal area-wide. The upper level
pattern will keep monsoon moisture well to the east through the
period so little or no afternoon convection is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1700Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 3600 feet with a temperature of 27 C.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in valley and desert TAFs
with VFR conditions expected through the period.

For coastal sites, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs. Timing of
flight category changes for KSBP and KSMX could be +/- 2 hours of
current forecast. South of Point Conception, there is a 30% chance
of CIG/VSBY restrictions for KSBA, KOXR and KCMA. For KSMO, KLAX
and KLGB, there is a 40% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not
develop tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance that
CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight. If the restrictions
do develop, timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours
of current forecasts. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...24/138 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds through tonight. For Monday through Friday, there is a
40-60% chance of SCA level winds, mainly around Point Conception
during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Tonight through Friday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds
through Friday, mainly during the late afternoon and evening
hours. For the remainder of the southern Inner Waters, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through
Friday.

Dense fog with visibilities of one nautical mile or less will be
possible this weekend during the night and morning hours,
especially off the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 38-88-342>345-348-351>353-368>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 356>358. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Flagstaff Office