499
FXUS66 KLOX 201250
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
450 AM PST Tue Jan 20 2026

updated aviation section

.SYNOPSIS...19/1129 PM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring warm and dry
conditions to the area today, along with breezy northeast winds
across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through this morning. A
significant cooling trend is expected to begin Wednesday, with
light rain or drizzle possible Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...20/301 AM.

As high pressure continues to rebuild over the Great Basin this
morning, offshore flow continues to strengthen and bring yet
another day of warm and dry conditions to the region. Breezy N-NE
winds will affect the typical Santa Ana wind corridors of LA and
Eastern Ventura County this morning, but gusts will mainly be
below advisory levels - save for a few favored mountain locations
that may gust to around 45 mph at times this morning. Temperatures
will see a little bit of warming today compared to yesterday due
to the increase in offshore flow and rising 500 mb heights, but
not much to notice a difference. The marine layer clouds are
trying to make a return this morning, but have a higher chance of
returning tonight when the offshore flow weakens again. This means
that low clouds and patchy (potentially dense) fog will be
possible along coastal locations.

The rest of the forecast is more or less on track. Onshore flow is
expected to return later Wednesday, kicking off a significant
cooling trend (bringing high temps down to the low to mid 60s for
the majority of the region by Friday). A weak upper level low
will split off from a system in the Gulf of Alaska and travel
south off the California coast. There`s not a ton of moisture with
the system, but the southwest flow from the low will be able to
pull a little bit from a disorganized band of moisture off the
coast of Mexico. As a result, some sprinkles or very light showers
are possible Thursday, with amounts totaling around 0.10 inches
or less. However, the forecast has rain chances low because many
areas may get sprinkles, but not enough to measure 0.01.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...20/301 AM.

After Thursday, high pressure will rebuild over the West Coast,
bringing dry conditions to the region once again, as well as a
slow warming trend through early the following week. Offshore
flow could return as early as Saturday or Sunday with some models
indicating a return to moderate offshore flow and Santa Ana
winds, but the upper pattern suggests minimal upper level support.
This means that any offshore winds would most likely be below
advisory levels with minimal impacts.

As far as rain chances go, ensembles are still picking up on some
signals somewhere around the 30th-31st, though each model run
seems to push chances a little closer to early February.
Additionally, the vast majority of the solutions favor light to,
at most, moderate rain with minimal impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1250Z.

At 0736Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface
based inversion with a top at 1700 ft and a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in TAFs through 06Z, then low confidence for
coastal sites thereafter. 10% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at
coastal sites and KPRB through 17Z Tue. After 06Z Wed, there is a
20-50% chance for VLIFR/LIFR conds, highest south of Point
Conception. Very low confidence in timing if cigs do arrive (+/- 5
hours).

Light LLWS possible at KBUR, KVNY, KCMA, and KCMA through the
period, best chances through 00Z Wed. Light to occasionally
moderate turbulence possible over mountainous terrain across LA
and Ventura counties.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 06Z Tue, then low
confidence thereafter. Less than 10% chc for BKN002-004 and
1/4SM-1/2SM through 17Z Tues. 50% chance for VFR conds to
prevail, but 50% chance for BKN002-004 and 1/4SM-1/2SM after 06Z
Wed. Very low confidence in timing (+/- 5 hours from TAF). Good
confidence in east wind component remaining below 7 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Light LLWS possible through the
period, best chances through 00Z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...20/145 AM.

Localized northeast Santa Ana wind gusts of 15-20 knots (isolated
gusts to 25 knots) are likely at times through this afternoon
nearshore between Channel Islands harbor and Mailbu. Elsewhere,
winds and seas are expected to remain relatively calm through
Wednesday, then there is a 30% chance for Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) winds across the Outer Waters and into the western Santa
Barbara Channel Thursday through Friday. However, confidence is
low in maximum wind speeds and location Thu and Fri as a
notoriously difficult-to-forecast cutoff low pressure system will
be responsible for any increase in winds. Additionally, light
rain showers will be possible Thursday.

Patchy dense fog with visibilities less than 1 NM is currently
impacting portions of the coastal waters. Dense fog may be an
issue as coverage will likely increase late tonight into
Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KL/MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/KL/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office