829
FXUS66 KLOX 091554
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
854 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...09/850 AM.

Temperatures will cool region wide through the weekend and into
early next week. While Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to track
well south of Los Angeles County, periods of light to moderate
showers with a low chance of thunderstorms is expected from
Saturday evening into early next week. Another warm up is likely
Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...09/853 AM.

***UPDATE***

A more robust marine layer from coastal Ventura County northward
along with lowering 500 mb heights aloft and increased onshore
flow will lead to region-wide cooling, a much welcomed relief from
a prolonged, dangerous heat wave. Further cooling can be expected
this weekend into early next week, with periods of light to
moderate showers, a low chance of thunderstorms, and locally
breezy winds. We will take a closer look at numbers for potential
rainfall for this afternoon`s forecast package, but generally we
will likely see periods of light to moderate rain showers, with
Sunday morning through Monday evening having the highest chance.

Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to track well south of Los
Angeles County.



***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. Main feature of note will be an upper low that drops
southward off the CA coast today/Saturday then move inland across
far Southern California on Sunday. As this low drops southward, it
will interact with moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel late
Saturday and Sunday.

Main concern in the short term will be the chances of rainfall
across the area as the upper low sucks up moisture from Rachel. At
this time, no major changes from previous thinking. The best
moisture will remain south of the CWA, but we will still get some
decent rain. Rain will begin over LA county late Saturday,
spreading across all areas Saturday night/Sunday morning then the
rain chances will shift eastward Sunday afternoon/evening. Rain
totals through Sunday evening look to generally range from
0.10-0.50 inches across Ventura/LA counties with up to around
1.00 inch across the San Gabriel Mountains. For Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties, rain chances are much less and any
measurable rainfall should only amount to a few hundredths of an
inch. Looking at the latest ensemble solutions, these QPF numbers
look on track. Of course any change in the track of Rachel could
result in changes to these QPF numbers.

As for thunderstorm chances, current convective parameters do not
look too impressive for the area. However, given the complexity of
the interaction between the upper low and Rachel, it seems prudent
to keep a low chance (5-10%) of thunderstorms on Sunday.
Probabilities are not high enough to mention in the official
forecast, but should be kept in the back of everyone`s mind.

Other than the rain issues for the area, the forecast is pretty
straightforward. Onshore flow will continue across the area
through Sunday. With lowering H5 heights, this will allow for the
marine layer to become deeper and more widespread through the
weekend. Additionally, there will be good cooling trend each day,
giving the area a refreshing change from the heat earlier this
week. The increasing onshore flow will generate gusty
southwesterly winds across interior sections with a low chance of
advisory-level gusts on Sunday across the desert foothills.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/213 AM.

For the extended period, 00Z models exhibit some noticeable
disagreement, leading to relatively low confidence in the
extended forecast. The GFS, and its ensembles, drop an upper low
along the CA coast and over the area on Monday then move it
eastward over the area and into the Great Basin on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Conversely, the ECMWF, and its ensembles, drop the low
over the Great Basin Monday and Tuesday, before ejecting it
eastward on Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast-wise, either model solution will generate a threat of
showers across all areas Monday and Tuesday. Given the uncertainty
of the pattern, forecast takes a middle ground. Rainfall totals on
Monday and Tuesday are forecast to range between 0.10 and 0.25
inches for most areas with up to around 0.50 inches in the
mountains. If the GFS solutions verifies, the rainfall totals
would be on the higher side of that range. As for any thunderstorm
threat, the GFS track of the upper low could give some mentionable
chance of thunderstorms while the ECMWF solution would not. So,
will any chances of thunderstorms under 10% at this time and see
how things develop.

For Wednesday and Thursday, both models indicate increasing
offshore pressure gradients. The ECWMF is stronger with the
forecast gradients, indicating the potential for weak (to possibly
moderate) Santa Ana winds. The GFS, with its weaker gradients,
would indicate a weak Santa Ana at worst. Either way, with rising
H5 heights and some amount of offshore flow, temperatures will be
on the upswing Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1032Z.

At 1000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 3700 feet with a temperature of 25 degrees
Celsius.

For 12Z TAF package, high confidence in KWJF and KPMD. For all
other sites, moderate confidence in TAFs as timing of flight
category changes through the period could be +/- 3 hours of
current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...09/840 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday morning, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. From
Saturday afternoon through Monday morning, high confidence in a
combination of SCA level winds and seas. On Tuesday, there is a
50% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception with winds
remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Saturday morning, winds and seas
are expected to remain below SCA levels. From Saturday afternoon
through Tuesday, SCA level winds are expected (mainly in the
afternoon and evening hours) with seas approaching SCA levels on
Sunday and Monday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Sunday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds. For Monday
through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels except for a 50% chance of SCA level winds on Tuesday
across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel.

Periods of light to moderate showers is likely Saturday evening
through Tuesday, with highest confidence for Sunday-Monday. There
is a 10% chance of thunderstorms during the same time frame. While
showers or thunderstorms are possible anywhere, highest chances
exist south of Point Conception.

&&

.BEACHES...09/843 AM.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday afternoon
for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, while a Beach Hazards
Statement (BHS) is in effect for the Santa Barbara South Coast and
the Central Coast.

A very complex series of swells from the south, west, and
northwest will impact our coastlines into at least early next
week. Energy from Tropical Storm Rachel, southern hemisphere
swells, northwest swells, and local wind swells will add up with
each other to produce elevated surf and dangerous rip currents at
times. Extremely high tides will be common each morning, peaking
between 6.8 to 7.6 feet MLLW, highest further south. Additionally
secondary high tides will peak each evening, likely most impactful
through the weekend with tides reaching 5.5 to 6.5 feet MLLW.

While each day under the Coastal Flood Advisories or BHS should
see fairly similar impacts, Sunday will likely see elevated
impacts. Rapidly increasing winds will likely add to the coastal
flooding potential, creating a wind swell as well as elevating
tides slightly. Additionally, if lower pressure moves over the
region, water levels could rise, adding to the coastal flooding
concern in southern LA County. If all these ingredients overlap
on Sunday, a more significant coastal flooding event would be
possible. This is a very narrow window, but there is a low to
moderate chance for a targeted Coastal Flood Warning to be issued
in southern Los Angeles County if all factors line up.

As this is a complex and evolving situation, please continue to
monitor the forecast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday morning
      through Monday afternoon for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/Lewis
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT/Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office