749
FXUS66 KLOX 202052
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
152 PM PDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.SYNOPSIS...20/1221 PM.

It will be cooler today. Widespread rain will develop Wednesday
and continue into Thursday with a chance of thunderstorms. A weak
Santa Ana will develop in the storms wake.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...20/125 PM.

The upper level low continues drop south following 130w, roughly
parallel with SLO County but about 400 miles to the west. The
system is starting to turn the corner and head east and seems to
be on track for a relatively on time arrival Wednesday morning
in SLO and Santa Barbara Counties and by afternoon in LA County.
On satellite the storm still looks pretty strong with an actively
convective center with at least two or three primary rain bands
ahead of it. The ENS and GEFS ensemble rain amounts ticked up last
night by as much as a half inch and generally held that level with
the 12z run this morning. So for this cycle very fer changes have
been made to the forecast. A targeted Flood Watch has been issued
for southern Santa Barbara County as well as the Santa Monica
Mountains and adjacent coastline as models have been indicating
the highest rain rates in those areas, around .75" per hour. For
the western areas the peak rain rates are expected in the
afternoon and evening hours while in Ventura and LA Counties the
heaviest rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
In general, for areas south of Pt Conception, rain amounts are
expected to be around 1.5 inches, except as much as 2-3 inches in
upslope areas and any areas where thunderstorms develop. Areas
north of there closer to an inch, though again higher amounts in
storms. Also, there is a small (5% or less) chance of a weak
tornado as the upper low moves inland late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. No snow below 8000 feet.

Dry weather will return Friday with a weak or potentially low end
moderate Santa Ana event this weekend but much weaker than the
last event. Temperatures should warm up quickly into the upper 70s
and 80s most everywhere except for the mountains and deserts.
Latest models are indicating peak winds around 35 mph across most
coast/valley areas in LA/Ventura Counties.

Fun fact: For those curious about rain probabilities in October,
the chances for rain on any given day in October is around 7%,
which is only 20% lower than in February. And remember we also
had a big storm in October of 2025 that dropped just under 1.5" in
LA.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...20/129 PM.

A weak to low end moderate Santa Ana event is expected this
weekend but much weaker than the last event. Temperatures should
warm up quickly into the upper 70s and 80s most everywhere except
for the mountains and deserts. Latest models are indicating peak
winds between 30 and 50 mph, strongest in the LA/Ventura
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...20/2049Z.

At 20Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in IFR-MVFR conds at KSMX, KSMO, KLAX, &
KLGB. Timing may be off +/- 3 hours with CIG height +/- 200 ft of
TAF. There is a 25% chance for no low clouds.

Good confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA. There is
a 15% chance for brief IFR-MVFR conds 20/12Z-17Z.

SHRA is expected for overspread most TAF sites between 12Z-22Z,
earliest along the Central Coast to KSBA. There is a 10-20 percent
chance of TSRA KSBA and north starting around 18Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25% chance for no
low clouds. There is a 30% chc of lower cigs of OVC008. Low clouds
may arrive as early as 11Z. An east wind component up to 5 kt is
possible 12-18Z with a 10 percent chance of brief 8 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Less than 10% chance for brief
BKN008 conds 20/13Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/216 AM.

Relatively quiet conditions are expected across the waters today,
then a storm system will move into the coastal waters as early as
late this evening. This system will impact the area through
Thursday. While at this point it doesn`t appear as though it will
bring significant winds, there will likely be some enhanced
southerly flow Wednesday, which may require SCAs to be issued
(including nearshore). In addition to the enhanced southerly flow,
boaters can expect rain and a chance of thunderstorms and
isolated waterspouts. With any thunderstorm there is the threat of
lightning, gusty and erratic winds, small hail, and choppy seas.
As the system leaves the area Thursday, fairly widespread west to
northwest SCA winds will impact much of the coastal waters,
creating steep, choppy wind waves.

Then a weak to locally moderate Santa Ana Wind event is likely
this weekend, with some localized SCA level gusts possible
nearshore in favored areas nearshore adjacent to Ventura and LA
Counties.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday
      afternoon for zones 348>353. (See LAXFFALOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Thursday night
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      Thursday afternoon for zones 362-369-370. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RM/Rorke
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...RM/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office